UK Demographic Change: 70 Years of Data
From a population that was over 99% White British in 1951 to 74.4% in the 2021 Census — tracked across every decade using ONS data, country-of-birth records, and government estimates. Live net migration counters update continuously. Pre-1991 figures are estimates (marked †).
Live Counters — 2026
Net migration and population estimates update every 100ms based on ONS annual figures. Migration counters run from 1 January 2026. Population estimates extrapolate 2021 Census data at observed annual rates of change.†
Net migrants added to UK in 2026
Gross arrivals to UK in 2026
Estimated non-White British in England & Wales
Estimated White British population (England & Wales)
Source: ONS Long-Term International Migration Estimates 2023; ONS Census 2021. † = extrapolated estimate, not direct census measurement.
Census Records: 1951–2021
The ethnic group question was first asked in the 1991 Census. Figures before 1991 are estimates derived from country-of-birth data and government survey research — marked with †. Official census percentages are shown without †.
| Year | White British % | White (all) % | Non-White % | Non-White (approx.) | 10yr change | Data type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1951 | ~99%† | ~99%† | ~0.4%† | ~175,000† | — | Estimated |
| 1961 | ~98.5%† | ~98.5%† | ~1.0%† | ~500,000† | +0.6pp† | Estimated |
| 1971 | ~97%† | ~97%† | ~2.5%† | ~1.2 million† | +1.5pp† | Estimated |
| 1981 | ~95.5%† | ~96%† | ~4.0%† | ~2.0 million† | +1.5pp† | Estimated |
| 1991 | ~94%† | 94.1% | 5.9% | ~3.0 million | +1.9pp | Census |
| 2001 | 87.5% | 91.3% | 8.7% | ~4.5 million | +2.8pp | Census |
| 2011 | 80.5% | 86.0% | 14.0% | ~7.9 million | +5.3pp | Census |
| 2021 | 74.4% | 81.7% | 18.3% | ~10.9 million | +4.3pp | Census |
Ethnic Composition by Census Year
Ethnic group share of England & Wales population across official census years 1991–2021. Each bar shows the full population split. White British shown in dark grey; other groups follow.
Source: ONS Census 2021, 2011, 2001, 1991 · England and Wales only
Ethnic Group Detail: 1991–2021
Percentage share of England & Wales population by ethnic group across the four censuses with ethnic group data. Note that category definitions changed between 1991 and 2001, so direct comparison of some groups is approximate.
| Ethnic Group | 1991 | 2001 | 2011 | 2021 | Change 2001→2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White British | ~94%† | 87.5% | 80.5% | 74.4% | −13.1pp |
| White Irish | ~1.3%† | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | −0.3pp |
| Other White | ~1%† | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | +3.6pp |
| Mixed / Multiple | ~0.4%† | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | +1.7pp |
| Indian | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | +1.1pp |
| Pakistani | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | +1.3pp |
| Bangladeshi | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | +0.6pp |
| Chinese | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | +0.3pp |
| Other Asian | ~0.4%† | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | +1.2pp |
| Black Caribbean | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.0pp |
| Black African | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | +1.7pp |
| Other Black | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.3pp |
| Arab | — | — | ~0.4%† | 0.6% | — |
| Other | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% | +1.0pp |
Key Immigration Events: 1948–2024
Major legislative and demographic events that shaped the pace of change. The shift from minimal non-white settlement before 1948 to record net migration in the 2020s represents one of the fastest demographic transformations of any large European nation.
Explore Cities in Detail
Deep-dive demographic pages for the UK's most changed cities — full census history, ethnic composition bars and context.
UK Cities: White British Population 2011 vs 2021
Census 2011 and 2021 comparison for major UK cities. City-level figures marked † have not been independently verified against Nomis local authority data and should be treated as approximate. Click through for detailed city pages.
| City | White British 2011 | White British 2021 | Change | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| London (Greater) | ~44.9%† | ~36.8%† | ~−8.1pp† | Minority-minority | View → |
| Birmingham | 53.1% | 43.5% | −9.6pp | Below 50% WB | View → |
| Leicester | ~45.1%† | ~39.3%† | ~−5.8pp† | Below 50% WB | View → |
| Bradford | ~54.4%† | ~46.5%† | ~−7.9pp† | Approaching 50% | View → |
| Slough | ~34.5%† | ~27.6%† | ~−6.9pp† | Below 50% WB | — |
| Luton | ~44.6%† | ~44.7%† | ~0pp† | Below 50% WB | — |
| Wolverhampton | ~57.6%† | ~49.5%† | ~−8.1pp† | Approaching 50% | — |
| Manchester | ~59.3%† | ~52.0%† | ~−7.3pp† | Approaching 50% | — |
| Coventry | ~67.4%† | ~57.9%† | ~−9.5pp† | Significant change | — |
| Leeds | ~73.4%† | ~66.5%† | ~−6.9pp† | Significant change | — |
Projected Demographic Change: 2031–2221
The figures below are purely illustrative projections based on extrapolating current Census trends forward at observed rates of change. They are not official ONS projections and should not be treated as forecasts. Real demographic outcomes depend on future immigration policy, birth rates, intermarriage, how people self-identify in future censuses, economic conditions and many other unpredictable factors. Projections beyond 30–40 years carry enormous uncertainty; projections beyond 100 years are speculative to the point of being illustrative only. The near-term figures (2031–2051) are the most plausible; the longer-term figures grow increasingly uncertain with each decade. Source for baseline: ONS Census 2021.
Based on the 2011→2021 rate of change: White British declining at approximately 6pp per decade; non-white population growing at approximately 4–5pp per decade. Near-term figures (to 2051) are most reliable. Figures beyond 2071 carry very high uncertainty.
| Year | White British % | Other White % | Asian / Asian British % | Black / African / Caribbean % | Mixed % | Other % | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 (actual) | 74.4% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | Census |
| 2031 | ~68% | ~9% | ~11% | ~4.7% | ~3.6% | ~3.7% | Low–Medium |
| 2041 | ~62% | ~10% | ~13% | ~5.4% | ~4.3% | ~5.3% | Low–Medium |
| 2051 | ~56% | ~11% | ~15% | ~6.1% | ~5.0% | ~6.9% | Low |
| ~2062 est. | ~50% (crossover) | ~12% | ~16% | ~6.5% | ~5.5% | ~10% | Very Low |
| 2071 +50yr | ~44% | ~13% | ~19% | ~7.5% | ~6.5% | ~10% | Very Low |
| 2121 +100yr | ~14% | ~16% | ~35% | ~14% | ~13% | ~8% | Speculative |
| 2171 +150yr | ~5% | ~12% | ~40% | ~20% | ~15% | ~8% | Highly Speculative |
| 2221 +200yr | <5% | ~10% | ~42% | ~22% | ~18% | ~8% | Highly Speculative |
Understanding UK Demographic Change
Before 1948: A Largely Homogeneous Population
Before the arrival of HMT Empire Windrush in June 1948, the non-white population of Britain was estimated at fewer than 100,000 people — concentrated primarily in port cities including Cardiff, Liverpool and east London. This represented less than 0.2% of the total UK population. The British Isles had historically seen immigration from Ireland (particularly following the 1845–52 Famine), Jewish refugees from Eastern Europe, and small communities of lascars and colonial settlers, but ethnic diversity in the modern sense was minimal.
Country-of-birth data from the 1951 Census recorded approximately 220,000 people born in the Caribbean, India and Pakistan combined — though many of these were white British nationals who had lived or worked in the colonies.
1948–1991: The Commonwealth Era
The British Nationality Act 1948 granted Commonwealth citizens the right of abode in the United Kingdom, opening the door to large-scale labour immigration from the Caribbean, India, Pakistan and later Bangladesh. Post-war labour shortages in industries including transport, healthcare and manufacturing drove active recruitment from Commonwealth nations. London Transport, for example, ran a direct recruitment scheme in Barbados from 1956.
Successive governments attempted to limit immigration through the Commonwealth Immigrants Acts of 1962 and 1968, and the Immigration Act 1971, which restricted the right of abode to those with a parent or grandparent born in the UK (the so-called "patriality" rule). However, net immigration from the New Commonwealth continued, partly because each announcement of impending restrictions triggered an acceleration of arrivals before the deadline.
By 1991 — when the first direct Census measurement was taken — the non-white population of England and Wales stood at approximately 3.0 million, or 5.9% of the population. Growth had been steady but modest: roughly 200,000 additional non-white residents per decade between 1951 and 1981.
2001–2021: The Acceleration
The period between the 2001 and 2021 Censuses saw a dramatic acceleration in the pace of demographic change. The non-white population grew from approximately 4.5 million in 2001 to 10.9 million in 2021 — an increase of 6.4 million in 20 years, compared to an increase of roughly 3 million in the preceding 50 years.
Several factors drove this acceleration. The EU enlargement of 2004 brought approximately one million Polish-born people to the UK, though these immigrants are classified as "Other White" rather than non-white. Net non-EU migration increased significantly from the mid-2000s onwards. The 2010s saw sustained high net migration averaging over 250,000 per year, rising to record levels in the early 2020s.
The 2021 Census recorded that 18.3% of England and Wales residents were non-white — up from 14.0% in 2011. The White British share fell by 6.1 percentage points over the decade to 74.4%. Several major cities recorded White British populations below 50% for the first time.
2022–Present: Record Net Migration
Following Brexit, EU net migration to the UK turned negative — more EU citizens left than arrived. However, non-EU net migration increased sharply, driven by students, workers on skilled visas, and asylum claimants. Net migration reached a record 764,000 in the year to June 2022, and remained at 685,000 in 2023 — figures substantially above any previous peacetime level.
The leading countries of origin for long-term immigrants in 2022–23 included India, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, China and Ukraine (the latter following Russia's invasion in February 2022). The government's stated target is to reduce net migration to "tens of thousands" — a commitment that has remained unmet for over a decade.
Frequently Asked Questions
Methodology & Sources
Census data (1991–2021): All figures from ONS Census publications for England and Wales. The 2021 Census ethnic group data (dataset TS021) was published by ONS in 2022–23. Figures for 2001 and 2011 are from equivalent ONS Census releases.
Pre-1991 estimates: Figures marked † are estimates derived from country-of-birth data in earlier censuses (available from 1851 onwards) and from Policy Studies Institute (PSI) survey research published in the 1970s and 1980s. Academic sources include work by Ceri Peach (University of Oxford) on Black and Asian population distribution in Britain. These figures are approximations and should not be cited as census counts.
Live counters: Net migration and population estimates are extrapolated from the most recent ONS annual figures. They are projections for illustrative purposes and do not represent official ONS estimates. Population trend counters use the 10-year rate of change observed between 2011 and 2021 Census data.
City-level data: Birmingham 2011 and 2021 figures are sourced from widely-reported ONS Census local authority data and are high confidence. All other city figures marked † are approximations from secondary sources and should be verified against Nomis (nomisweb.co.uk) TS021 before citation.
Primary sources: ONS Census 2021 · ONS Census 2011 · ONS Census 2001 · ONS Census 1991 · ONS Long-Term International Migration Estimates · ONS Ethnic Group, England and Wales: Census 2021 (published Nov 2022).